Fantasy football playoff odds
Your league's real chances, team by team: making the playoffs, earning a bye and winning the title, from 10,000 simulated rest-of-seasons on your league's actual schedule.
Open your league See the example league
Free, no sign-up. Works with Sleeper and public ESPN leagues: your username, or your league's link or ID.
How the odds are calculated
Each team's weekly score is modeled from its results so far, pulled toward the league average early in the season and less so as the weeks add up, so two big weeks in September don't make a team a lock. Then the rest of the regular season is played out 10,000 times on your league's real remaining schedule.
- Your league's rules. The number of playoff teams, ties in the standings broken by points scored, and the weekly median game in leagues that play one.
- Injuries and byes. Each roster's expected score moves week by week for players on bye, on IR or listed out, and the backups who'd fill in.
- The bracket. The playoffs are simulated too, with first-round byes for the top seeds and re-seeding in leagues that use it, so title odds reward a top seed.
Why the odds moved
The chart replays the season week by week, using only what was known at the time, so you can see which weeks made or broke a team's season. With the injury model on or off, you can see how much of a team's outlook depends on who's healthy.
Questions
Does it work for my league? Any Sleeper league, and public ESPN leagues: redraft, keeper and dynasty. Best ball and IDP leagues aren't supported.
Is it for betting? No. The odds are estimates for fun and bragging rights in your league.
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